Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Viborg FF win on 2026-11-07?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 50¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$16.3K
$706.66
57.2¢ → 50¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 57.2¢ | $9.1K | $9.5K | +$425.69 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 57.1¢ | $6.5K | $6.8K | +$282.19 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $19.37 | $18.3 | -$1.07 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $3.08 | $2.93 | -$0.15 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
Invested
$9,068.61
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$425.69
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$6,485.89
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$282.19
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$19.37
Value
$18.3
PnL
-$1.07
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$2.93
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.