Will Derby County FC win on 2026-11-06?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 63¢ · $317 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$316.55
$6.52
61.9¢ → 62.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 62.2¢ | $154.63 | $159.13 | +$3.73 | 51% 26315-24941 (51256) |
DV dv-pm | Noavg 61¢ | $103.14 | $105.63 | +$2.49 | 48% 3352-3568 (6920) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $33.47 | $33.33 | -$0.13 | 64% 10066-5621 (15687) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $16.32 | $16.84 | +$0.53 | 53% 16908-15025 (31933) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $6.4 | $1.63 | -$0.09 | 58% 47033-33917 (80950) |
Invested
$154.63
Value
$159.13
PnL
+$3.73
Record
51%
26315-24941 (51256)
Invested
$103.14
Value
$105.63
PnL
+$2.49
Record
48%
3352-3568 (6920)
Invested
$33.47
Value
$33.33
PnL
-$0.13
Record
64%
10066-5621 (15687)
Invested
$16.32
Value
$16.84
PnL
+$0.53
Record
53%
16908-15025 (31933)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
$1.63
PnL
-$0.09
Record
58%
47033-33917 (80950)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.