Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Derby County FC vs. Bolton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 45¢ · $124 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$123.81
-$0.79
44.3¢ → 45¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.2¢ | $92.33 | $91.86 | -$0.47 | 51% 26315-24941 (51256) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.2¢ | $12.95 | $13.2 | +$0.25 | 50% 26084-25740 (51824) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.2¢ | $8.82 | $8.58 | -$0.24 | 49% 1537-1615 (3152) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $8.03 | $7.86 | -$0.27 | 53% 2617-2309 (4926) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.2¢ | $2.37 | $2.31 | -$0.06 | 50% 1594-1623 (3217) |
Invested
$92.33
Value
$91.86
PnL
-$0.47
Record
51%
26315-24941 (51256)
Invested
$12.95
Value
$13.2
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
26084-25740 (51824)
Invested
$8.82
Value
$8.58
PnL
-$0.24
Record
49%
1537-1615 (3152)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$8.03
Value
$7.86
PnL
-$0.27
Record
53%
2617-2309 (4926)
Invested
$2.37
Value
$2.31
PnL
-$0.06
Record
50%
1594-1623 (3217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.