Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 67¢ · $660 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$659.84
$3.14
62.5¢ → 66.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 38.6¢ | $267.03 | $277.19 | +$10.17 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38.6¢ | $180.27 | $156.6 | +$5.17 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.7¢ | $115.6 | $120.6 | +$5 | |
GC GC-P | Yesavg 62¢ | $112.79 | $116.43 | +$2.73 | 64% 10165-5759 (15924) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Yesavg 62.2¢ | $77.82 | $83.26 | +$5.43 | 64% 10163-5703 (15866) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 63.9¢ | $63.2 | $63.32 | +$0.13 | 48% 1730-1861 (3591) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.8¢ | $59.31 | $52.59 | -$6.71 | 50% 26346-25970 (52316) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $31.59 | $32.57 | +$0.26 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $16.19 | $16.18 | +$1.17 | 48% 7443-7977 (15420) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 63.2¢ | $14.78 | $14.97 | +$0.12 | 49% 1756-1850 (3606) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Yesavg 66.1¢ | $3.31 | $3.33 | +$0.02 | 50% 1808-1796 (3604) |
Invested
$267.03
Value
$277.19
PnL
+$10.17
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Both legs:
Invested
$112.79
Value
$116.43
PnL
+$2.73
Record
64%
10165-5759 (15924)
Invested
$77.82
Value
$83.26
PnL
+$5.43
Record
64%
10163-5703 (15866)
Invested
$63.2
Value
$63.32
PnL
+$0.13
Record
48%
1730-1861 (3591)
Invested
$59.31
Value
$52.59
PnL
-$6.71
Record
50%
26346-25970 (52316)
Invested
$31.59
Value
$32.57
PnL
+$0.26
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$16.19
Value
$16.18
PnL
+$1.17
Record
48%
7443-7977 (15420)
Invested
$14.78
Value
$14.97
PnL
+$0.12
Record
49%
1756-1850 (3606)
Invested
$3.31
Value
$3.33
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
1808-1796 (3604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.