Wrexham AFC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 51¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.0K
$11.09
47.4¢ → 51¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 47.4¢ | $526.07 | $565.62 | +$39.55 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 53¢ | $348.63 | $309.16 | -$39.47 | 56% 8223-6528 (14751) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 47¢ | $134.5 | $145.92 | +$11.42 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $16.51 | $16.1 | -$0.41 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5.2 | $5.2 | +$0 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
Invested
$526.07
Value
$565.62
PnL
+$39.55
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$348.63
Value
$309.16
PnL
-$39.47
Record
56%
8223-6528 (14751)
Invested
$134.5
Value
$145.92
PnL
+$11.42
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$16.51
Value
$16.1
PnL
-$0.41
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.