Will Emeka Egbuka have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $669 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$669.34

Combined PnL

$156.77

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 81¢

+30% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$444.69

Total Shares549

Combined PnL+$153.98

Yes2 traders

Total Value$224.65

Total Shares1,182

Combined PnL+$2.79

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Noavg 60¢	$252.5	$405	+$152.5	64% 1050-593 (1643)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 9¢	$109.92	$220.85	+$5.81	39% 316-501 (817)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$38.21	$39.69	+$1.48	68% 740-356 (1096)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$6.82	$3.8	-$3.02	31% 739-1614 (2353)

ndb1

Invested

$252.5

Value

$405

PnL

+$152.5

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Yes

Invested

$109.92

Value

$220.85

PnL

+$5.81

Record

39%

316-501 (817)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100

Invested

$38.21

Value

$39.69

PnL

+$1.48

Record

68%

740-356 (1096)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.82

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$3.02

Record

31%

739-1614 (2353)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.