Consensus PnL -$1.5K · win rate 71% (498–206, n=704) · PM monthly #581 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-1.5K
Record
498W / 206L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 704 settled
Batting Avg
43.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#687
Source
PM monthly #581
Trades
474
Markets
946
Volume
$156.1K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Yes $452 · now 96¢ · in at 80¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $197 · now 99¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (83% of 47)
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?No $46 · now 93¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Specialties
461 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 70¢- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 76% of 59 · avg entry 72¢
ROI −15%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 88% of 40 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+9 pts
side won 82% of 28 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 43% of 60 at an average 55¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 9% of 90)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 35% of 17)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 57% of 40)
- 70¢ and up: 68%(won 90% of 314)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.