Consensus PnL $6.3K · win rate 51% (135–129, n=264) · PM monthly #592 · holds 95 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$6.3K
Record
135W / 129L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 264 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1708
Source
PM monthly #592
Trades
282
Markets
594
Volume
$99.8K
Top consensus positions
95 in listed consensus markets · 49 of 95 on the consensus side (52%)- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No $1.4K · now 75¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (65% of 24)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No $741 · now 73¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (57% of 22)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?Yes $659 · now 61¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $590 · now 71¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (88% of 27)
- Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes $509 · now 93¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $493 · now 90¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (67% of 42)
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $462 · now 74¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes $419 · now 71¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (69% of 27)
Specialties
158 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 77¢- Elections
+16 pts
side won 85% of 27 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +15%
- Mentions
+5 pts
side won 87% of 63 · avg entry 83¢
ROI −1%
- Tech
+4 pts
side won 82% of 17 · avg entry 78¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 70% of 10 at an average 70¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 24% of 21)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 57% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 94% of 18)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 95% of 112)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.