Will Tamworth FC win on 2026-10-23?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 53¢ · $290 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$289.97
$13.37
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $213.51 | $214.17 | +$0.66 | 52% 49502-46467 (95969) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45¢ | $112.53 | $132.53 | +$19.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.1¢ | $100.94 | $81.64 | -$19.32 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $36.86 | $45.69 | +$8.83 | 57% 60850-45924 (106774) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $16.62 | $19.58 | +$2.96 | 53% 3142-2756 (5898) |
87 0x87a7...8cea<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $6.94 | $8.17 | +$1.23 | — |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.35 | +$0.35 | 47% 123-136 (259) |
Invested
$213.51
Value
$214.17
PnL
+$0.66
Record
52%
49502-46467 (95969)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.86
Value
$45.69
PnL
+$8.83
Record
57%
60850-45924 (106774)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$16.62
Value
$19.58
PnL
+$2.96
Record
53%
3142-2756 (5898)
Invested
$6.94
Value
$8.17
PnL
+$1.23
Record
—
Invested
$2
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.35
Record
47%
123-136 (259)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.