Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 62¢ · $475 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$474.6
$16.28
59.6¢ → 61.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 37¢ | $176.19 | $183.33 | +$7.14 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 60¢ | $135.6 | $138.99 | +$3.39 | 48% 61036-65868 (126904) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 59¢ | $117.13 | $120.51 | +$4.98 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $21 | $21.53 | +$0.52 | 58% 21143-15371 (36514) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $10 | $10.25 | +$0.25 | 53% 2570-2251 (4821) |
Invested
$176.19
Value
$183.33
PnL
+$7.14
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$135.6
Value
$138.99
PnL
+$3.39
Record
48%
61036-65868 (126904)
VeryLucky888Invested
$117.13
Value
$120.51
PnL
+$4.98
Record
58%
46667-33629 (80296)
Invested
$21
Value
$21.53
PnL
+$0.52
Record
58%
21143-15371 (36514)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
2570-2251 (4821)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.