Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-06?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.1K
$59.15
43¢ → 43.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $522.25 | $522.25 | +$0 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $578.91 | $258.65 | +$2.89 | 40% 1343-2035 (3378) |
38 38791873984189 | Yesavg 56¢ | $196.71 | $252 | +$55.29 | 48% 59237-63255 (122492) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $43.26 | $43.75 | +$0.49 | 39% 1338-2112 (3450) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $27.89 | $27.89 | +$0.32 | 64% 1891-1048 (2939) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $9.1 | $9.1 | +$0 | 51% 7648-7364 (15012) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $9.5 | $1.33 | +$0.15 | 58% 19455-14308 (33763) |
Invested
$522.25
Value
$522.25
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$578.91
Value
$258.65
PnL
+$2.89
Record
40%
1343-2035 (3378)
Invested
$196.71
Value
$252
PnL
+$55.29
Record
48%
59237-63255 (122492)
Invested
$43.26
Value
$43.75
PnL
+$0.49
Record
39%
1338-2112 (3450)
Invested
$27.89
Value
$27.89
PnL
+$0.32
Record
64%
1891-1048 (2939)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.1
Value
$9.1
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
7648-7364 (15012)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$1.33
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
19455-14308 (33763)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.