Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 28¢ · $761 held · ends Nov 7

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$761.15

Combined PnL

$4.73

Smart Money Entry

26.3¢ → 27.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$713.93

Total Shares2,653

Combined PnL+$4.72

No3 traders

Total Value$47.22

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$467.88	$476.88	+$9	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$116.74	$118.93	+$2.19	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$80.91	$73.93	-$6.97	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.2¢	$43.68	$44.19	+$0.51	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 73¢	$38.41	$28.23	+$0.19	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 73¢	$13.52	$13.33	-$0.19	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 72¢	$5.66	$5.66	+$0	39% 1339-2113 (3452)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$467.88

Value

$476.88

PnL

+$9

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$116.74

Value

$118.93

PnL

+$2.19

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.91

Value

$73.93

PnL

-$6.97

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.68

Value

$44.19

PnL

+$0.51

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$38.41

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$0.19

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$13.52

Value

$13.33

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.