Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Leeds United FC, while the market favors Tottenham Hotspur FC (75%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Leeds United FC (100%) · Leeds United FC at 26¢ · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Leeds United FC
3
Leeds United FC 100%
$0
-$286.64
15.7¢ → 25.5¢
+62% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLeeds United FC at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Tottenham Hotspur FC 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Leeds United FCavg 12¢ | $10.2 | — | -$10.2 | 47% 1665-1884 (3549) |
 ZaiZoiBeleCTR | Leeds United FCavg 17.9¢ | $123.14 | — | -$123.14 | 80% 5629-1441 (7070) |
 HoshinoAICTR | Leeds United FCavg 14.6¢ | $153.3 | — | -$153.3 | 7% 2-26 (28) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.