Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 35¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$187.22
$11.84
34.9¢ → 34.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1CTR | Noavg 34¢ | $104.13 | $114.85 | +$10.72 | 64% 1081-614 (1695) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.2¢ | $29.44 | $29.72 | +$0.28 | 48% 3364-3590 (6954) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $26.59 | $27.53 | +$0.94 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.8¢ | $9.27 | $9.17 | -$0.18 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $5.87 | $5.95 | +$0.08 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
Invested
$104.13
Value
$114.85
PnL
+$10.72
Record
64%
1081-614 (1695)
Invested
$29.44
Value
$29.72
PnL
+$0.28
Record
48%
3364-3590 (6954)
Invested
$26.59
Value
$27.53
PnL
+$0.94
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$9.27
Value
$9.17
PnL
-$0.18
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$5.95
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.