Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 54¢ · $64 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$63.69
$1.08
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $21.27 | $21.98 | +$0.47 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $12.38 | $12.5 | +$0.12 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $10.65 | $10.96 | +$0.31 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $9.47 | $9.57 | +$0.1 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $8.6 | $8.68 | +$0.08 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
Invested
$21.27
Value
$21.98
PnL
+$0.47
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Invested
$12.38
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10.65
Value
$10.96
PnL
+$0.31
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
Invested
$9.47
Value
$9.57
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.