Will SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. PSV end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $763 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$762.78
-$5.65
83.1¢ → 84¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 83¢ | $462.31 | $467.88 | +$5.57 | 51% 24452-23135 (47587) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $140.39 | $141.58 | +$1.19 | 48% 59434-63450 (122884) |
E4 e46m3CTR | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $292.58 | $133.64 | -$12.7 | 72% 13988-5402 (19390) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $9.99 | $10.11 | +$0.12 | 73% 2438-885 (3323) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $9.4 | $9.58 | +$0.17 | 58% 45573-32987 (78560) |
Invested
$462.31
Value
$467.88
PnL
+$5.57
Record
51%
24452-23135 (47587)
Invested
$140.39
Value
$141.58
PnL
+$1.19
Record
48%
59434-63450 (122884)
Invested
$292.58
Value
$133.64
PnL
-$12.7
Record
72%
13988-5402 (19390)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$0.12
Record
73%
2438-885 (3323)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.58
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
45573-32987 (78560)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.