Exact Score: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 2 - 2 PSV?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $483 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$482.59
-$15.33
99.4¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 99.9¢ | $439.99 | $438.01 | -$1.54 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $27.02 | $26.9 | +$1.57 | 48% 2079-2257 (4336) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $15.84 | $15.77 | +$0.91 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $365.99 | $1.65 | -$14.09 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $58.19 | $0.26 | -$2.18 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
Invested
$439.99
Value
$438.01
PnL
-$1.54
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$27.02
Value
$26.9
PnL
+$1.57
Record
48%
2079-2257 (4336)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$15.77
PnL
+$0.91
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
RN1CTRInvested
$365.99
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$14.09
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$58.19
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$2.18
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.