Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Telstar 1963 vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 48¢ · $58 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$57.8
-$5.02
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.9¢ | $49.92 | $48 | -$1.92 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $4.8 | -$5.19 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $2.11 | $2.6 | +$0.49 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $0.8 | $2.4 | +$1.6 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
Invested
$49.92
Value
$48
PnL
-$1.92
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$5.19
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$2.11
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.49
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$1.6
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.