Consensus PnL $27K · win rate 51% (6711–6470, n=13181) · was PM monthly #914 · holds 46 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$27.5K
Record
6711W / 6470L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 13181 settled
Batting Avg
56.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1675
Source
PM monthly #914
Trades
17,707
Markets
25,323
Volume
$10.2M
Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 46 on the consensus side (54%)- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5Over $677 · now 35¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (64% of 17)
- Spread: Torino FC (-1.5)Frosinone Calcio $426 · now 99¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under $280 · now 61¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (58% of 20)
- Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-11-01?No $271 · now 88¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes $253 · now 46¢ · in at 69¢against the consensus (No)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo $220 · now 73¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-11-01?No $215 · now 100¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (75% of 20)
- SK Brann vs. Molde FK: O/U 4.5Over $193 · now 100¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
4,409 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 71¢- Soccer
+29 pts
side won 100% of 4409 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 99% of 299)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 100% of 474)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 100% of 844)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 100% of 2792)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.