Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-11-06?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $548 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$547.71
-$10.69
55.9¢ → 54.5¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 56¢ | $189.85 | $186.46 | -$3.39 | 53% 16908-15025 (31933) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 56¢ | $123.34 | $121.08 | -$2.26 | 64% 10064-5621 (15685) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 56¢ | $114.76 | $112.71 | -$3.07 | 50% 26081-25734 (51815) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 56.1¢ | $99.81 | $97.9 | -$1.9 | 64% 10089-5690 (15779) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $26.81 | $26.81 | +$0 | 48% 61747-66610 (128357) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 56.2¢ | $2.81 | $2.75 | -$0.06 | 52% 8834-8034 (16868) |
Invested
$189.85
Value
$186.46
PnL
-$3.39
Record
53%
16908-15025 (31933)
Invested
$123.34
Value
$121.08
PnL
-$2.26
Record
64%
10064-5621 (15685)
Invested
$114.76
Value
$112.71
PnL
-$3.07
Record
50%
26081-25734 (51815)
Invested
$99.81
Value
$97.9
PnL
-$1.9
Record
64%
10089-5690 (15779)
Invested
$26.81
Value
$26.81
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
61747-66610 (128357)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$2.75
PnL
-$0.06
Record
52%
8834-8034 (16868)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.