Spread: Real Sporting de Gijón (-1.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Real Sporting de Gijón (100%) · Real Sporting de Gijón at 100¢ · $356 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Real Sporting de Gijón
3
Real Sporting de Gijón 100%
1 arb excluded
$355.65
$23.87
90.5¢ → 99.9¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralReal Sporting de Gijón at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | Real Sporting de Gijónavg 99.9¢ | $135.94 | $135.94 | +$0 | 99% 11171-71 (11242) |
TO topdogbigboi | Real Sporting de Gijónavg 79.5¢ | $94.18 | $117.96 | +$23.78 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | AD Ceuta FCavg 72¢ | $88.73 | $100.25 | +$11.52 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
| └ AD Ceuta FC leg | AD Ceuta FCavg 72¢ | $807.36 | $67.28 | +$0 | |
| └ Real Sporting de Gijón leg | Real Sporting de Gijónavg 65¢ | $21.45 | $32.97 | +$11.52 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Real Sporting de Gijónavg 94¢ | $1.41 | $1.5 | +$0.09 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$135.94
Value
$135.94
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
11171-71 (11242)
Invested
$94.18
Value
$117.96
PnL
+$23.78
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$88.73
Value
$100.25
PnL
+$11.52
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.5
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.