Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CE Sabadell FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 50¢ · $585 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$585.02
-$13.67
51.3¢ → 49.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 50.9¢ | $342.1 | $332.78 | -$9.32 | 52% 49335-46295 (95630) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 51¢ | $105.38 | $85.03 | -$2.47 | 58% 53685-38217 (91902) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 50.2¢ | $83.75 | $84.17 | +$0.42 | 45% 2614-3160 (5774) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $79.88 | $77.64 | -$2.24 | 51% 28769-28143 (56912) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 50.2¢ | $5.53 | $5.39 | -$0.05 | 46% 2566-3072 (5638) |
Invested
$342.1
Value
$332.78
PnL
-$9.32
Record
52%
49335-46295 (95630)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$105.38
Value
$85.03
PnL
-$2.47
Record
58%
53685-38217 (91902)
Invested
$83.75
Value
$84.17
PnL
+$0.42
Record
45%
2614-3160 (5774)
Invested
$79.88
Value
$77.64
PnL
-$2.24
Record
51%
28769-28143 (56912)
Invested
$5.53
Value
$5.39
PnL
-$0.05
Record
46%
2566-3072 (5638)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.