Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CE Sabadell FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 48¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$108.66
-$0.03
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 53.1¢ | $49.08 | $50.14 | +$1.06 | 52% 49211-46180 (95391) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 47.2¢ | $24.8 | $24.11 | -$0.26 | 50% 24077-24172 (48249) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 47.2¢ | $20.26 | $19.73 | -$0.21 | 45% 2577-3112 (5689) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $9.39 | $8.81 | -$0.67 | 53% 3124-2733 (5857) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $4.69 | $5.87 | +$0.05 | 51% 28741-28115 (56856) |
Invested
$49.08
Value
$50.14
PnL
+$1.06
Record
52%
49211-46180 (95391)
Invested
$24.8
Value
$24.11
PnL
-$0.26
Record
50%
24077-24172 (48249)
Invested
$20.26
Value
$19.73
PnL
-$0.21
Record
45%
2577-3112 (5689)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$9.39
Value
$8.81
PnL
-$0.67
Record
53%
3124-2733 (5857)
Invested
$4.69
Value
$5.87
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
28741-28115 (56856)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.