Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$115.9

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 93.3¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,919

Combined PnL+$206.3

Yes1 trader

Total Value$145.3

Total Shares2,153

Combined PnL-$90.4

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FU Fulgurator	Noavg 88¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$194.9	92% 61-5 (66)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$236.78	$145.3	-$90.4	69% 987-450 (1437)
SI simpleman<$100	Noavg 85¢	$34	$37.3	+$3.22	47% 456-520 (976)
88 881112<$100	Noavg 52¢	$10.4	$18.65	+$8.18	38% 567-944 (1511)

Fulgurator

Invested

$3,396.27

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$194.9

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$236.78

Value

$145.3

PnL

-$90.4

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

simpleman<$100

Invested

$34

Value

$37.3

PnL

+$3.22

Record

47%

456-520 (976)

881112<$100

Invested

$10.4

Value

$18.65

PnL

+$8.18

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.5%

93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.