Consensus PnL $405K · win rate 34% (344–681, n=1025) · was PM monthly #858 · holds 105 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$404.8K
Record
344W / 681L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 1025 settled
Batting Avg
67.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2162
Source
PM monthly #858 + pinned
Trades
64,096
Markets
1,696
Volume
$5.7M
Top consensus positions
105 in listed consensus markets · 53 of 105 on the consensus side (50%)- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No $3.3K · now 67¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (58% of 36)
- Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?Yes $3.2K · now 23¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.9K · now 14¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Yes $2.7K · now 74¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (54% of 26)
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes $2.7K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No $2.3K · now 58¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?No $2.2K · now 76¢ · in at 76¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?No $2.2K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (32% of 19)
Specialties
800 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 39¢- Finance
+40 pts
side won 100% of 42 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +32%
- Geopolitics
+24 pts
side won 75% of 296 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +14%
- Mentions
+14 pts
side won 50% of 161 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +12%
Weakest: College Football — held side won 0% of 11 at an average 12¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 50%(won 23% of 396)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 64% of 102)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 95% of 129)
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 100% of 173)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.