Consensus PnL $91K · win rate 48% (487–520, n=1007) · was PM monthly #990 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$91.4K
Record
487W / 520L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 1007 settled
Batting Avg
55.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1878
Source
PM monthly #990 + pinned
Trades
4,122
Markets
1,315
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 22 on the consensus side (68%)- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes $61K · now 71¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (69% of 27)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $34K · now 71¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (88% of 27)
- Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes $26K · now 73¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes $19K · now 72¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Yes $7.6K · now 73¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?No $4.5K · now 86¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?No $3.5K · now 87¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?No $2.5K · now 94¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
Specialties
993 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 50¢- Economy
+5 pts
side won 49% of 179 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 62% of 245 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 67% of 139 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Culture — held side won 33% of 15 at an average 45¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 17% of 373)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 41% of 150)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 59% of 97)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 94% of 373)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.