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Consensus PnL $21K · win rate 92% (66–6, n=72) · was PM monthly #988 · holds 28 consensus positions
0x01309d49...5b47274cPolymarket
🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$21.2K
Record
66W / 6L
Win Rate
92.0%
of 72 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#209
Source
PM monthly #988
Trades
44
Markets
109
Volume
$195.9K
Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 28 on the consensus side (75%)- Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes $11K · now 84¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?No $8.2K · now 84¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $8.1K · now 44¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?No $5.0K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.6K · now 44¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (77% of 35)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $3.3K · now 44¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 86¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (67% of 24)
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes $3.2K · now 83¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
Specialties
64 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 87¢- Politics
+13 pts
side won 100% of 33 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 100% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 100% of 57)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.