Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.2K
$86.77
84.4¢ → 88.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | Noavg 85¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$60 | 85% 605-108 (713) |
 GoriIIa | Noavg 81¢ | $243 | $265.5 | +$21 | 73% 229-85 (314) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 83.8¢ | $156.1 | $159.8 | +$3.7 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.58 | $2.65 | +$2.07 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$1,700
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$60
Record
85%
605-108 (713)
GoriIIaInvested
$243
Value
$265.5
PnL
+$21
Record
73%
229-85 (314)
Tenebrus7Invested
$156.1
Value
$159.8
PnL
+$3.7
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.58
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$2.07
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.