Consensus PnL $546K · win rate 72% (242–93, n=335) · was PM monthly #920 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$545.9K
Record
242W / 93L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 335 settled
Batting Avg
42.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#663
Source
PM monthly #920
Trades
1,865
Markets
422
Volume
$21.5M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 14 on the consensus side (100%)- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No $257K · now 96¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (61% of 28)
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No $116K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $42K · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $37K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $30K · now 86¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (87% of 46)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $25K · now 94¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (40% of 36)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $25K · now 87¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No $20K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
Specialties
387 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 86¢- Elections
+7 pts
side won 93% of 81 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 93% of 44 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +5%
- Economy
+4 pts
side won 96% of 23 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 83% of 95 at an average 88¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 20% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 43% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 67% of 27)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 90% of 343)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.