Consensus PnL $143K · win rate 88% (593–78, n=671) · PM monthly #368 · holds 58 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$142.5K
Record
593W / 78L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 671 settled
Batting Avg
54.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#268
Source
PM monthly #368 + pinned
Trades
20,607
Markets
833
Volume
$30.8M
Top consensus positions
58 in listed consensus markets · 55 of 58 on the consensus side (95%)- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $683K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $211K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $206K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $204K · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?No $195K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $187K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $154K · now 95¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No $146K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
Specialties
701 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 88¢- Elections
+3 pts
side won 94% of 18 · avg entry 92¢
ROI −7%
- Esports
+10 pts
side won 91% of 11 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +16%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 85% of 124 at an average 87¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 14% of 36)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 43% of 23)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 45% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 87%(won 96% of 611)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.