Consensus PnL $136K · win rate 41% (1455–2125, n=3580) · PM monthly #621 · holds 123 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$136.2K
Record
1455W / 2125L
Win Rate
41.0%
of 3580 settled
Batting Avg
75.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2076
Source
PM monthly #621 + pinned
Trades
53,793
Markets
4,932
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
123 in listed consensus markets · 36 of 123 on the consensus side (29%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $19K · now 19¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No $18K · now 91¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (69% of 16)
- Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?No $13K · now 96¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $4.0K · now 54¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (42% of 27)
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $3.3K · now 44¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (68% of 19)
- Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?Yes $2.6K · now 23¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?Yes $1.6K · now 68¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (42% of 13)
- JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?Yes $1.6K · now 80¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Specialties
3,886 settled consensus markets · held side won 13% at an average entry of 10¢- Elections
+6 pts
side won 16% of 303 · avg entry 9¢
ROI +1%
- Mentions
+7 pts
side won 22% of 206 · avg entry 15¢
ROI +5%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 11% of 222 · avg entry 6¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 4% of 145 at an average 6¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 88%(won 6% of 3421)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 50% of 228)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 60% of 134)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 90% of 103)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.