Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 2?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 81¢ · $608 held · ends Nov 2

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$607.84

Combined PnL

$5.34

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$77.84

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$8.61

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.36

Total Shares44

Combined PnL-$3.27

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$626	$521.64	-$100.69	47% 698-782 (1480)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.5¢	$382.04	$394.36	+$2.58
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.4¢	$243.96	$127.28	-$103.28
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 69¢	$39.83	$45.44	+$5.61	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$29.4	$32.4	+$3	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.4¢	$11.63	$8.36	-$3.27	50% 1907-1873 (3780)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$626

Value

$521.64

PnL

-$100.69

Record

47%

698-782 (1480)

Both legs:

No$382.0478.5¢+$2.58

Yes$243.9636.4¢-$103.28

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$39.83

Value

$45.44

PnL

+$5.61

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$29.4

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$3

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.63

Value

$8.36

PnL

-$3.27

Record

50%

1907-1873 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.