Consensus PnL $63K · win rate 52% (1027–964, n=1991) · PM monthly #274 · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$62.8K
Record
1027W / 964L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 1991 settled
Batting Avg
76.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1615
Source
PM monthly #274
Trades
328
Markets
3,629
Volume
$997.6K
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 23 on the consensus side (52%)- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on November 1?Yes $314 · now 100¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 1?No $178 · now 89¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (80% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 1?Yes $139 · now 54¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on November 1?No $113 · now 89¢ · in at 78¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 1?No $84 · now 70¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 1?Yes $65 · now 43¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 1?Yes $60 · now 87¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?Yes $59 · now 38¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
1,303 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 60¢- Weather
+38 pts
side won 98% of 1301 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +30%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 100% of 168)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 99% of 234)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 97% of 348)
- 70¢ and up: 42%(won 97% of 553)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.