Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $156 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$155.92
-$320.71
49.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 49.4¢ | $228.92 | $86.89 | -$183.73 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $146.16 | $52.6 | -$146.02 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 44.6¢ | $7.39 | $16.42 | +$9.03 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.