Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 38¢ · $627 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$627.12
-$5.07
39¢ → 37.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 56.1¢ | $250.44 | $272.4 | +$35.36 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 39¢ | $254.61 | $209.79 | -$31.7 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $65.69 | $59.06 | -$3.17 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $48.53 | $45.88 | +$1.11 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.8¢ | $46.54 | $39.47 | -$7.08 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.53 | $0.53 | +$0.41 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
Invested
$250.44
Value
$272.4
PnL
+$35.36
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$254.61
Value
$209.79
PnL
-$31.7
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Invested
$65.69
Value
$59.06
PnL
-$3.17
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
Invested
$48.53
Value
$45.88
PnL
+$1.11
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$46.54
Value
$39.47
PnL
-$7.08
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.53
PnL
+$0.41
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.