Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on November 2?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$0.58
-$238.28
20.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $177 | $0.37 | -$176.63 | 47% 746-836 (1582) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.3¢ | $61.68 | $0.17 | -$61.51 | 53% 3388-3006 (6394) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.18 | $0.05 | -$0.14 | 35% 558-1046 (1604) |
Invested
$177
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$176.63
Record
47%
746-836 (1582)
Invested
$61.68
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$61.51
Record
53%
3388-3006 (6394)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.14
Record
35%
558-1046 (1604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.