Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 30% (164–379, n=543) · PM monthly #310 · holds 48 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.2K
Record
164W / 379L
Win Rate
30.0%
of 543 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2545
Source
PM monthly #310
Record (90 d)
1879/3927 · 48%
Trades
533
Markets
13,256
Volume
$885.8K
Top consensus positions
48 in listed consensus markets · 33 of 48 on the consensus side (69%)- Will Joint List win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $1.8K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?No $191 · now 62¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?No $161 · now 90¢ · in at 91¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?No $142 · now 86¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 2?Yes $126 · now 100¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes $114 · now 32¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes $113 · now 92¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (63% of 19)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?No $64 · now 69¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
Specialties
1,355 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 65¢- Entertainment
+3 pts
side won 80% of 69 · avg entry 77¢
ROI 0%
- MLB
+4 pts
side won 61% of 33 · avg entry 57¢
ROI 0%
- Tennis
+11 pts
side won 82% of 11 · avg entry 71¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 63% of 178 at an average 63¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 2% of 445)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 39% of 36)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 67% of 39)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 99% of 835)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.