Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on November 2?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 34¢ · $225 held · ended Nov 2

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$224.56

Combined PnL

-$1.56

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$10.15

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$0.07

Yes2 traders

Total Value$13.95

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$1.49

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$197.29	$200.46	+$3.17	49% 728-747 (1475)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.7¢	$134.12	$139.93	+$2.92
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.9¢	$60.27	$60.52	+$0.25
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$10.22	$10.15	-$0.07	54% 7726-6475 (14201)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$7.69	$7.17	-$0.52	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$8.11	$6.79	-$0.97	50% 2042-2019 (4061)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$197.29

Value

$200.46

PnL

+$3.17

Record

49%

728-747 (1475)

Both legs:

No$134.1276.7¢+$2.92

Yes$60.2720.9¢+$0.25

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.22

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

7726-6475 (14201)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.69

Value

$7.17

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.11

Value

$6.79

PnL

-$0.97

Record

50%

2042-2019 (4061)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.