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EB
Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 58% (346–250, n=596) · PM monthly #385 · holds 10 consensus positions
0xeb1b3ef2...7c7f87c0Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$49.0K
Record
346W / 250L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 596 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1289
Source
PM monthly #385
Trades
192
Markets
1,364
Volume
$405.4K
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 10 on the consensus side (70%)- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on November 1?Yes $721 · now 100¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 1?Yes $716 · now 100¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on November 1?Yes $697 · now 52¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 1?Yes $477 · now 87¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 1?Yes $409 · now 43¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1?Yes $407 · now 99¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 1?Yes $286 · now 40¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on November 1?Yes $172 · now 31¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
599 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 60¢- Weather
+39 pts
side won 99% of 599 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +32%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 100% of 76)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 98% of 84)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 99% of 201)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 238)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.