Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 53% (2805–2479, n=5284) · PM monthly #900 · holds 76 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$11.8K
Record
2805W / 2479L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 5284 settled
Batting Avg
56.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1619
Source
PM monthly #900
Record (90 d)
1923/4231 · 45%
Trades
16,577
Markets
14,046
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
76 in listed consensus markets · 40 of 76 on the consensus side (53%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $259 · now 99¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (67% of 78)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?No $253 · now 91¢ · in at 82¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes $134 · now 99¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 2?No $126 · now 96¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (67% of 13)
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on November 2?No $96 · now 100¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on November 2?Yes $89 · now 100¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 2?No $80 · now 100¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?No $77 · now 84¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
Specialties
1,750 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 53¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Poligarch's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Weather — held side won 44% of 1650 at an average 53¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 1% of 477)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 11% of 273)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 41% of 360)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 92% of 640)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.