Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 3?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 56¢ · $117 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$116.55
$4.09
62.8¢ → 56¢
-11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $60.14 | $58.25 | -$1.89 | 60% 2356-1540 (3896) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $28.43 | $33.87 | +$5.44 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $23.9 | $24.44 | +$0.54 | 50% 2042-2019 (4061) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.