Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 2?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 93¢ · $487 held · ends Nov 2

Yes93¢No7¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$487.07

Combined PnL

$191.9

Smart Money Entry

24.4¢ → 93.1¢

+282% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$444.02

Total Shares679

Combined PnL+$216.36

No5 traders

Total Value$43.05

Total Shares159

Combined PnL-$24.47

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry	Yesavg 13.5¢	$50.61	$181.85	+$131.24	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 15.5¢	$28.44	$129.38	+$62.66	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$11.83	$62.29	+$7.47	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 81.9¢	$39.55	$43.82	+$4.27	56% 3737-2986 (6723)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 37.9¢	$39.18	$34.48	-$4.69	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$8.02	$17.2	+$7.69	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 63.3¢	$6.44	$9.48	+$3.03	37% 685-1150 (1835)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Noavg 89.5¢	$22.04	$6.43	-$15.61	55% 561-452 (1013)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 15.6¢	$2.23	$0.99	-$1.25	35% 710-1327 (2037)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 24.8¢	$3.54	$0.98	-$2.55	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 21.7¢	$0.54	$0.17	-$0.37	28% 5957-15587 (21544)

Bilberry

Yes

Invested

$50.61

Value

$181.85

PnL

+$131.24

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$28.44

Value

$129.38

PnL

+$62.66

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.83

Value

$62.29

PnL

+$7.47

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.55

Value

$43.82

PnL

+$4.27

Record

56%

3737-2986 (6723)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$39.18

Value

$34.48

PnL

-$4.69

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.02

Value

$17.2

PnL

+$7.69

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.44

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$3.03

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Invested

$22.04

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$15.61

Record

55%

561-452 (1013)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$1.25

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$3.54

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$2.55

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.37

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.4%

93.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.