Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1000 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$999.65
$428.58
47.7¢ → 99.3¢
+108% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 46¢ | $363.88 | $779.14 | +$408.53 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 54¢ | $109.67 | $199.84 | +$22.34 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 48.2¢ | $26.99 | $16.72 | -$10.27 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 75.6¢ | $34.02 | $3.95 | +$7.99 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
Invested
$363.88
Value
$779.14
PnL
+$408.53
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$109.67
Value
$199.84
PnL
+$22.34
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$26.99
Value
$16.72
PnL
-$10.27
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$34.02
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$7.99
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.