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10
Consensus PnL $5.7K · win rate 60% (490–330, n=820) · was PM monthly #994 · holds 16 consensus positions
0x1076773f...3aa7c0aaPolymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$5.7K
Record
490W / 330L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 820 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1154
Source
PM monthly #994
Trades
5
Markets
841
Volume
$66.6K
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 16 on the consensus side (75%)- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 1?Yes $403 · now 97¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on November 1?No $163 · now 70¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 1?No $132 · now 70¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 1?No $131 · now 91¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 1?Yes $128 · now 99¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 1?No $117 · now 89¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 6)
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 1?Yes $91 · now 100¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 1?Yes $67 · now 99¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
344 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 65¢- Weather
+35 pts
side won 100% of 344 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +38%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 100% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 100% of 55)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 100% of 121)
- 70¢ and up: 42%(won 100% of 145)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.