Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on November 1?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $518 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$518.39
$154.02
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 21.6¢ | $107.54 | $307.35 | +$181.25 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 81.6¢ | $152.18 | $124.95 | -$27.23 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $82.33 | $86.09 | +$3.77 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.3¢ | $64.6 | $52.2 | -$5.87 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.6¢ | $24.25 | $33.89 | +$9.64 |
Invested
$107.54
Value
$307.35
PnL
+$181.25
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Invested
$152.18
Value
$124.95
PnL
-$27.23
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$82.33
Value
$86.09
PnL
+$3.77
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.