Will Churchill Brothers SC vs. North East United FC end in a draw?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $212 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$211.86
-$0.46
80.8¢ → 84.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 80.9¢ | $110.9 | $111.77 | +$0.87 | 50% 28405-28302 (56707) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $84.33 | $78.29 | -$6.04 | 51% 25691-24411 (50102) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.2¢ | $53.14 | $57.11 | +$3.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.6¢ | $31.19 | $21.18 | -$10.01 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $11.74 | $9.84 | -$1.9 | 50% 1305-1289 (2594) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $7.4 | $7.77 | +$0.37 | 51% 37655-36883 (74538) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4 | $4.2 | +$0.2 | 47% 11679-13371 (25050) |
Invested
$110.9
Value
$111.77
PnL
+$0.87
Record
50%
28405-28302 (56707)
Invested
$84.33
Value
$78.29
PnL
-$6.04
Record
51%
25691-24411 (50102)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.74
Value
$9.84
PnL
-$1.9
Record
50%
1305-1289 (2594)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$7.77
PnL
+$0.37
Record
51%
37655-36883 (74538)
Invested
$4
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
47%
11679-13371 (25050)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.