Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Eliska Tichackova, while the market favors Victoria Allen (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W35 Heraklion: Victoria Allen vs Eliska Tichackova
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Eliska Tichackova (60%) · Eliska Tichackova at 35¢ · $442 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Eliska Tichackova
5
Eliska Tichackova 60%
1 arb excluded
$441.76
-$58.15
78.4¢ → 34.5¢
-56% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralEliska Tichackova at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Victoria Allen 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Eliska Tichackova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Eliska Tichackovaavg 89.2¢ | $286.32 | $128.8 | -$157.51 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Victoria Allenavg 27.6¢ | $40.5 | $86.72 | +$48.78 | 23% 108-368 (476) |
 RN1<$100 | Victoria Allenavg 8.1¢ | $19.77 | $76.05 | +$56.29 | 57% 3991-3004 (6995) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Eliska Tichackovaavg 41.9¢ | $48.3 | $69.26 | +$20.96 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
| └ Eliska Tichackova leg | Eliska Tichackovaavg 41.9¢ | $44.22 | $35.34 | -$8.88 | |
| └ Victoria Allen leg | Victoria Allenavg 8¢ | $4.08 | $33.92 | +$29.84 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Eliska Tichackovaavg 48.5¢ | $47.52 | $46.55 | -$0.97 | 53% 1763-1567 (3330) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Eliska Tichackovaavg 71.1¢ | $39.1 | $34.38 | -$4.73 | 49% 90-95 (185) |
Invested
$286.32
Value
$128.8
PnL
-$157.51
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$40.5
Value
$86.72
PnL
+$48.78
Record
23%
108-368 (476)
RN1<$100Invested
$19.77
Value
$76.05
PnL
+$56.29
Record
57%
3991-3004 (6995)
Invested
$48.3
Value
$69.26
PnL
+$20.96
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.52
Value
$46.55
PnL
-$0.97
Record
53%
1763-1567 (3330)
Invested
$39.1
Value
$34.38
PnL
-$4.73
Record
49%
90-95 (185)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.