M25 San Gregorio di Catania: Maxence Bertimon vs Eric Vanshelboim
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Eric Vanshelboim (80%) · Eric Vanshelboim at 100¢ · $462 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Eric Vanshelboim
5
Eric Vanshelboim 80%
$461.73
-$19.72
74¢ → 100¢
+35% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralEric Vanshelboim at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Eric Vanshelboimavg 80.5¢ | $369.49 | $295.26 | -$25.16 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Eric Vanshelboimavg 58¢ | $82.31 | $100.05 | +$17.74 | 53% 1793-1600 (3393) |
FL Flaznorp | Eric Vanshelboimavg 81¢ | $157.36 | $48.94 | -$7.22 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Maxence Bertimonavg 4.6¢ | $18.67 | $13.96 | -$4.71 | 57% 4028-3040 (7068) |
US User7429<$100 | Eric Vanshelboimavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.53 | -$0.38 | 23% 104-347 (451) |
Invested
$369.49
Value
$295.26
PnL
-$25.16
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$82.31
Value
$100.05
PnL
+$17.74
Record
53%
1793-1600 (3393)
Invested
$157.36
Value
$48.94
PnL
-$7.22
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$18.67
Value
$13.96
PnL
-$4.71
Record
57%
4028-3040 (7068)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.53
PnL
-$0.38
Record
23%
104-347 (451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.