W75 Brisbane: Savannah Broadus vs Maddison Inglis
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Maddison Inglis (75%) · Maddison Inglis at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
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Neutral
Maddison Inglis
4
Maddison Inglis 75%
2 arb excluded
$1.1K
$219.57
85.1¢ → 61.5¢
-28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaddison Inglis at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Maddison Inglis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Savannah Broadusavg 11¢ | $95.59 | $334.57 | +$238.98 | 54% 1656-1433 (3089) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Maddison Inglisavg 72.4¢ | $327.01 | $255.2 | +$85.69 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
| └ Maddison Inglis leg | Maddison Inglisavg 72.4¢ | $169.57 | $148.78 | +$10.06 | |
| └ Savannah Broadus leg | Savannah Broadusavg 10.6¢ | $30.79 | $106.42 | +$75.63 | |
 RN1 | Maddison Inglisavg 89¢ | $259.42 | $229.6 | -$29.82 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Maddison Inglisavg 89¢ | $273.78 | $229 | -$43.98 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
| └ Maddison Inglis leg | Maddison Inglisavg 89¢ | $244.57 | $169.09 | -$75.48 | |
| └ Savannah Broadus leg | Savannah Broadusavg 18.5¢ | $28.73 | $59.91 | +$31.5 | |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Maddison Inglisavg 71¢ | $52.68 | $62.87 | +$10.19 | 20% 93-362 (455) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Maddison Inglisavg 70.5¢ | $4.21 | $4.44 | +$0.23 | 50% 82-83 (165) |
Invested
$95.59
Value
$334.57
PnL
+$238.98
Record
54%
1656-1433 (3089)
Invested
$327.01
Value
$255.2
PnL
+$85.69
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$259.42
Value
$229.6
PnL
-$29.82
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
Invested
$273.78
Value
$229
PnL
-$43.98
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.68
Value
$62.87
PnL
+$10.19
Record
20%
93-362 (455)
Invested
$4.21
Value
$4.44
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
82-83 (165)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.