W75 Glasgow: Fiona Crawley vs Suzan Lamens
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Suzan Lamens (25%) · Suzan Lamens at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Suzan Lamens
4
Suzan Lamens 25%
$1.3K
$55.17
Research grade
NeutralSuzan Lamens at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Suzan Lamensavg 66.9¢ | $712.71 | $1.0K | +$343.51 | 48% 1065-1165 (2230) |
 RN1CTR | Fiona Crawleyavg 34¢ | $557.51 | $283.05 | -$294.92 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Fiona Crawleyavg 41.4¢ | $14.76 | $12.84 | -$1.92 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Fiona Crawleyavg 41¢ | $41 | $3 | +$8.5 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
Invested
$712.71
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$343.51
Record
48%
1065-1165 (2230)
RN1CTRInvested
$557.51
Value
$283.05
PnL
-$294.92
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$14.76
Value
$12.84
PnL
-$1.92
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$41
Value
$3
PnL
+$8.5
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.